IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
South Dakota St.
Summit League
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.8	#100
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.6	#191
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.3	#50

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.5	#184

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.4%	1.8%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	1.1%	4.0%	0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	41.4%	53.4%	39.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.5%	6.4%	0.8%
Average Seed	13.2	11.7	13.5

.500 or above	91.7%	98.3%	90.6%
.500 or above in Conference	96.1%	98.8%	95.7%
Conference Champion	40.0%	51.6%	37.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	1.9%	1.5%	2.0%
First Round	40.6%	52.7%	38.5%
Second Round	8.2%	14.7%	7.0%
Sweet Sixteen	2.7%	4.8%	2.3%
Elite Eight	0.7%	1.2%	0.6%
Final Four	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Neutral) - 14.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 3
Quad 3	5 - 3	6 - 6
Quad 4	11 - 1	17 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	7	West Virginia	L	70-81	15%
Dec 02, 2020	71	@ Iowa St.	L	76-82	29%
Dec 08, 2020	117	@ Bradley	L	72-74	44%
Dec 10, 2020	165	North Dakota St.	W	75-70	69%
Dec 11, 2020	248	North Dakota	W	82-72	82%
Dec 12, 2020	206	South Dakota	W	82-74	75%
Jan 08, 2021	333	Western Illinois	W	90-69	97%
Jan 09, 2021	333	Western Illinois	W	90-69	96%
Jan 15, 2021	196	@ Nebraska Omaha	W	80-76	64%
Jan 16, 2021	196	@ Nebraska Omaha	W	80-76	64%
Jan 22, 2021	248	North Dakota	W	83-70	87%
Jan 23, 2021	248	North Dakota	W	83-70	86%
Jan 29, 2021	305	@ Denver	W	83-73	80%
Jan 30, 2021	305	@ Denver	W	83-73	80%
Feb 05, 2021	206	South Dakota	W	84-73	82%
Feb 06, 2021	206	South Dakota	W	84-73	82%
Feb 13, 2021	178	@ Oral Roberts	W	81-78	59%
Feb 14, 2021	178	@ Oral Roberts	W	81-78	59%
Feb 19, 2021	165	@ North Dakota St.	W	74-72	57%
Feb 20, 2021	165	@ North Dakota St.	W	74-72	57%
Feb 26, 2021	275	UMKC	W	77-63	88%
Feb 27, 2021	275	UMKC	W	77-63	87%
Projected Record						15 - 7	12 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Summit League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.4	2.7	7.4	11.9	11.7	5.8		40.0	1st
2nd										0.0	0.8	4.2	8.6	8.3	3.8	0.9	0.0		26.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.9	3.8	5.8	3.6	0.9	0.1				15.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.7	2.9	3.5	1.4	0.1						8.7	4th
5th							0.1	0.5	1.9	1.9	0.6	0.0							5.0	5th
6th						0.1	0.4	1.0	0.8	0.2	0.0								2.5	6th
7th				0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0									1.3	7th
8th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0										0.5	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.1		0.0												0.1	9th
10th																				10th

Total			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	2.0	3.5	6.1	8.8	11.8	15.1	16.7	15.8	12.6	5.9			Total

Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	99.5%	5.8		5.7	0.2
15-1	93.1%	11.7		10.3	1.4	0.0
14-2	75.6%	11.9		8.5	3.2	0.2
13-3	44.7%	7.4		3.8	2.9	0.7	0.0
12-4	17.9%	2.7		0.7	1.3	0.6	0.1
11-5	3.2%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
10-6	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	40.0%	40.0		29.0	9.0	1.7	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	5.9%		79.7%	72.8%	6.9%	9.5		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0		1.2		25.4%
15-1	12.6%		69.8%	67.0%	2.8%	12.2						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	2.4	3.1	1.1	0.2	0.0	3.8		8.5%
14-2	15.8%		55.7%	55.1%	0.7%	13.2									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.8	3.2	2.6	0.8	0.0	7.0		1.5%
13-3	16.7%		45.8%	45.8%	0.1%	13.8												0.0	0.6	2.2	2.8	1.7	0.2	9.0		0.1%
12-4	15.1%		33.2%	33.2%		14.4													0.1	0.8	1.7	1.8	0.6	10.1
11-5	11.8%		27.0%	27.0%		15.0													0.0	0.2	0.7	1.4	0.9	8.6
10-6	8.8%		21.7%	21.7%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	6.9
9-7	6.1%		13.1%	13.1%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	5.3
8-8	3.5%		11.4%	11.4%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	3.1
7-9	2.0%		8.7%	8.7%		16.0																0.0	0.2	1.8
6-10	1.0%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.0
5-11	0.5%																							0.5
4-12	0.2%		4.5%	4.5%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
3-13	0.1%																							0.1
2-14	0.0%																							0.0
1-15
0-16

Total	100%		41.4%	40.5%	0.9%	13.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.6	1.0	2.0	5.8	10.2	9.5	6.8	3.7	58.6		1.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	4.2	5.7	6.1	19.9	31.4	19.3	7.8	6.8	3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	91.7%	7.5			4.2		37.5			8.3		33.3	8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	82.7%	9.3								17.3	46.2	1.9	15.4	1.9